Do you need a Baloney Detection Kit?

Carl Sagan was the Professor of Astronomy and Space Sciences, and also the Director of the Laboratory for Planetary Studies at Cornell University. What made him really famous, however, was his book “Cosmos”, which became the best-selling science book ever published in English. The TV series based on the book has been seen by a billion people in 60 countries. He is also well known for his work with NASA during the Apollo Space Program and more recently in the search for extra-terrestrial life. Sadly Carl Sagan died in 1996 of a rare cancer at the young age of 62. By then he had received 22 honorary degrees for his contributions to science, literature, education and the preservation of the environment. His various awards and prestigious positions are simply too numerous to mention.

Recently, on a trip through Botswana and Namibia, I had the opportunity to re-read his last two books: The Demon-Haunted World and Billions & Billions. From the many gems these last works contain, there are two insights that I particularly want to share with you.

First insight: to date there is NO EVIDENCE of extra-terrestrial life! And please note that this comes from the man who convinced fellow scientists to support the search for life in our and other galaxies; and convinced nations to fund such a search. And the reason for his conviction that, as yet, no hard evidence exists is that Sagan was totally committed to the scientific method. He goes to great lengths to examine the claims of the “UFO” proponents – those who claim to have seen or photographed unidentified flying objects or “flying saucers”. He also examines the testimony of those (almost exclusively Americans!) who claim to have been abducted by “aliens”. All the evidence to date shows that these claims are either fraudulent or clever hoaxes or unsupported private anecdotes. None of them meets the rigorous criteria for hard evidence demanded by the scientific method. As a friend of Sagan’s commented: “Keeping an open mind is a virtue, but not so open that your brains fall out!”

When asked: “Do you believe there is extra-terrestrial intelligence?” Sagan gave his standard answer – there are lots of places out there, the molecules of life in their billions are everywhere. It would be astonishing if there weren’t extra-terrestrial intelligence. But, as yet, there is no compelling evidence for it. So we’ll just have to reserve judgement until the evidence is in. So he died longing for some credible evidence to suggest that other intelligent life exists “out there”, but nothing had surfaced. Nor has anything since.

Second insight: because we humans are so incredibly gullible we need a baloney detection kit! Sagan traces the story of human gullibility down through the ages, right to our present time. He shows convincingly that we humans are prone to believe the most astonishing nonsense on the scantiest of evidence (yes, us too!). We tend to live in a “demon-haunted world” in which Sagan suggests that science is a candle in the dark. In the course of their training, scientists are equipped with a baloney detection kit which is brought into use whenever new ideas or claims are offered for consideration. This detection kit may help us to sniff out some of the hogwash that modern society tries to get us to accept. Here are some of the tools for sceptical thinking contained in his kit.

·         Wherever possible ask for independent confirmation of the ‘facts’ being presented

·         Encourage debate on the claim by knowledgeable proponents of all points of view

·         Don’t trust arguments from authority – authorities have made many bad mistakes

·         Quantify whenever you can, as much as you can – measure everything!

·         If there’s a chain of argument, every link in the chain, including the premise, must work

·         Apply Occam’s Razor: the rule of thumb that urges us, when faced with two hypotheses that explain the data equally well, to chose the simpler

·         Ask whether the hypothesis can, at least in principle, be falsified. Claims that are untestable and unfalsifiable are usually not worth much

The Baloney Detection Kit also has a comprehensive list of logical fallacies. Here are a few of the better known ones to watch out for.

·         Attacking the arguer and not the argument! (e.g. Mr Vavi is an avowed communist so his objections to current economic policy need not be taken seriously)

·         Begging the question, also called assuming the answer! (e.g. we must institute the death penalty to discourage violent crime. But does the violent crime rate in fact fall when the death penalty is introduced?)

·          Excluded middle, or false dichotomy – considering only the two extremes in a continuum of intermediate possibilities. (e.g. “Sure, take his side; my husband’s perfect; I’m always wrong.” Or, “either you hate country living or you love it!”)

·         The Slippery Slope, related to the excluded middle. (e.g. if we encourage tourism, we’ll soon have busloads of visitors taking over the entire village)

Sagan’s energy in his last years was passionately focused on encouraging educators to ensure that their charges were adequately schooled in the scientific method and in the tools of rational argumentation. He firmly believed that humanity’s destruction of its own environment will only be halted if sufficient numbers of ordinary people understand the consequences of our attitudes and actions. He saw teaching science and logical reasoning in school as a key way to spread this necessary understanding. He is probably right!